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When the smoke cleared at the end of the 1998 season, after the most
explosive home run race in the history of major league baseball, Mark McGuire
emerged as the all-time single season leader with 70 home runs. The previous
record of 61, held for 37 years by Roger Maris, was also surpassed by Sammy
Sosa who finished the 1998 season with 66 home runs. Was Mark McGwire's
70 home runs the greatest home run season of all time? For the record books,
the answer is yes. But in terms of dominating his peers, the answer would
be an emphatic no.
In 1927, the year Babe Ruth hit sixty home runs, the average starter hit about six home runs. In 1961, when Roger Maris hit 61 home runs, followed by Mickey Mantle with 54 home runs, the average starter hit about 14 home runs. During 1998, the average starter hit about 17 home runs.
Additional support for Ruth's 1920 season being the greatest of all time can be found in the table below which provides a z-score analysis of the greatest home run seasons in major league history. To get a z-score, the average number of home runs for a given year (e.g., 6.01 in 1927) is subtracted from a player's home run total for a given year (e.g., 60 for Ruth in 1927). The remainder (e.g., 60 - 6.01 = 53.99) is then divided by the standard deviation for home runs for a given year (e.g., 8.49 in 1927). This produces a z-score of 6.36 for Ruth's 60 home runs in 1927. While Ruth's 60 home run season was a great season, the following table indicates that 1920 was the greatest season of all time. Player Z-Score Home Runs Year 1. Babe Ruth 8.30 54 1920 2. Babe Ruth 7.48 29 1919 3. Babe Ruth 7.20 59 1921 4. Ned Williamson 6.80 27 1884 5. Babe Ruth 6.77 47 1926 6. Gavvy Cravath 6.67 24 1915 7. Buck Freeman 6.63 25 1899 8. Babe Ruth 6.36 60 1927 9. Fred Pfeffer 6.25 25 1884 10. Babe Ruth 6.00 54 1928Ruth's home run feats certainly stick out when a z-score analysis is performed. In comparison to the z-scores listed in the table above, Mark McGwire's 1998 z-score was 4.36 [(70-16.69)/12.23]. While this is a great accomplishment, it is nowhere near the dominating performances listed in the above table. To obtain a z-score of 8.30 in 1998, a player would have had to hit 118 home runs, almost doubling the previous record of 61. That is basically what Ruth did in 1920. If one player hit 118 home runs, while the next best player remained in the 50 or 60 home run range, he would become a mythical figure. That was the impact that Ruth had on the game of baseball with his dominating home run performances which began in 1919. The table below provides a list of the greatest home run seasons of all time. The fact that seven of the top thirteen occurred during the past three seasons demonstrates that we are currently in an unprecedented home run era. Some of the possible causes for the proliferation of home runs that have been entertained are a dilution of pitching talent due to league expansion and a declining minor league; and stronger players due to nutrition, weight training and performance enhancing drugs. Whatever the reason for the home runs, Mark McGwire is not alone in conquering old home run records. Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and many other players have also been having Ruthian years lately. Player Home Runs Year 1. Mark McGwire 70 1998 2. Sammy Sosa 66 1998 3. Mark McGwire 65 1999 4. Sammy Sosa 63 1999 5. Roger Maris 61 1961 6. Babe Ruth 60 1927 7. Babe Ruth 59 1921 8. Jimmie Foxx 58 1932 8. Hank Greenberg 58 1938 8. Mark McGwire 58 1997 11. Ken Griffey Jr. 56 1997 11. Ken Griffey Jr. 56 1998 11. Hank Wilson 56 1930The purpose of this article is not to diminish the great performances of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey, Jr. over the past three years, but to put them in perspective. One of the great things about the 1998 season was that it sparked an interest in baseball history. Fans were reminded of the many insults Roger Maris had to endure during the 1961 season as he threatened Babe Ruth's record. They also remembered the commissioner of baseball, Ford Frick, placing an asterisk next to Maris' record because he took 162 games to get the record, while Babe had done it in 154 games. The asterisk was eventually removed, but only a few years after Maris' death in 1985. While Maris was made to endure an asterisk next to his record (sic), Josh Gibson never had a chance to be in the record books because of the color of his skin. In 1936, he hit 84 home runs in 170 games. Some of those home runs came in Negro National League games where the pitching was of major league quality, but some of the home runs came against semi-pro teams, so comparisons are difficult. Nonetheless, those who saw both players perform claim that Gibson was equal to Ruth as a home run hitter. McGwire and Sosa's 1998 competition help remind us of the great players of the past. In James A. Riley's article, "Don't Forget Gibson's Power," he recalls
the night McGwire hit his 62nd home run against the Chicago Cubs, breaking
Maris' 37 year old record. After breaking the record, "he (McGwire) graciously
embraced Sammy Sosa, including him in the spotlight as America celebrated."
Then Riley asks, "Wouldn't it have been great if Ruth and Gibson could
have been afforded the same opportunity to chase the home run record together?"
Let us celebrate McGwire's new record and the enjoyable 1998 season, but
before we begin the next century, let us also remember Maris' great season,
and the dominance of Gibson and Ruth in their respective leagues during
the first half of this century.
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